Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
