Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
